As you may remember, back in April, US President Donald Trump imposed a three-month tariff pause on his proposed levy of tariffs on almost all countries in the world. This allowed some breathing room for negotiations with countries, with the initial stated goal being ninety deals in ninety days. And while that goal has not successfully been met as of yet (we know of three current deals, with the UK, Vietnam and China identified as having reached some form of a deal, although the actual specifics have been vague to date), the pause allowed countries to understand and identify their stated positions and begin informal and formal discussion with the US trade team on how to structure a working business relationship moving forward. The latest news would suggest that while the tariff pause from April is up on July 9th, and if a country has not already secured a new deal with the US, the actual tariff implementation will go into effect on August 1st. This means that a minimum 10% tariff will be imposed on most of the US trading partners, but some could see tariffs as high as 70%. Additionally, the Trump administration has indicated that it will be sending out “take it or leave it” trade offers to twelve countries, outlining the various tariffs they will face on goods exported to the US, if they do not agree to the conditions of the letter.
Why does this all matter? If you remember from earlier this year, the volatility of the stock market was based largely on the threat of tariffs and the uncertainty of the effect they could have on the US economy. And there is no doubt that the if the US moves ahead, some countries will respond with counter tariffs, potentially causing a disruption to supply chains and re-igniting the market volatility from earlier this year. We think the market reaction will be more muted and countries will actively work to make a deal that will be palatable, without disrupting the markets significantly. The US markets have responded favourably since that pause, and we believe that they will not want to disrupt the progress of the stock markets, especially since the Big Beautiful Bill was agreed to last week by the Senate and will be seen as a major win for the Trump administration, providing some tailwinds for greater growth in the back half of the year. We think regular volatility will continue and some excellent buying opportunities for cash sitting on the sidelines will present themselves as well as some excellent days in the stock markets. Diversification matters these days, and we will continue to review portfolios with clients to ensure that there is stable diversification within their investments.
We have an interesting article on Canada’s quest to become the world’s energy partner and the challenges it has experienced thus far. Check it out!
Many people have experienced the rising cost of buying a new home. We have attached an insightful article that focuses what needs to be done to not only cut the cost of housing prices but slow their increase.
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The ultimate road trip. Four friends, travelling through four states in a RV. We have provided an article that re-counts this adventure and provides some travel tips to those interested in doing something similar.
We have provided a summer reading list to help with those looking to build a bigger nest egg and have a successful retirement. Have a read!
Have an amazing week everyone!
We have an excellent article that highlights the outlook for the S&P 500 for the remainder of 2025. It will focus on both bull and bear case scenarios.
