We often like to reflect on a quote that resonates, especially during periods similar to what we are currently experiencing- “When everything seems to be going against you, remember that the airplane takes off against the wind, not with it”- Henry Ford. We believe that this current adversity we face as investors will be a catalyst for growth and progress.
While the current market despair is certainly concerning, and perhaps it may be too early to signal a coming market rally, we firmly believe that we are closer to seeing a recovery in the market for four reasons:
- Negotiations surrounding tariffs will begin very shortly. Countries understand the pain that a tariff trade war could inflict, and many believe that they will come to the table to negotiate in some form to lower the current tariffs.
- Stimulus in the US is on the way in two separate ways: first, interest rate cuts will be taken by the Federal Reserve, perhaps as early as May, but certainly by the summer. Second, fiscal stimulus will be arriving in the form of a large tax cut that is working its way though the House and Senate, likely by the summer.
- With the volatility of the markets currently and the fear of increased costs for consumers, there could be a pause or decrease in consumer spending, potentially causing a period of deflation, not inflation as previously suggested.
- And while the word recession has been thrown out in the media frequently the last week, many still believe that something even greater would need to break for a recession to kick in. At this point in time, unemployment is still hovering at the 4% in the US and with the trillions expected to be inserted into the US economy this summer, we believe that talk of recession is a too early.
As mentioned in our email last week, Pat and I have great confidence in the mutual fund Portfolio Managers who are constantly reviewing and re-assessing the portfolios you, our clients, are invested in. While the current environment may feel unsettling, we continue to monitor it closely and will recommend action if necessary. With this in mind, we would like to emphasize the following messages:
- Do not watch your portfolio hourly - this will certainly stress you out more than necessary and will cause you unnecessary panic. The markets will have much movement in a given day, which is for certain. Stressing over the continual changes is not constructive for you and your mental health. Trust us to be your eyes and ears!
- Call/email us if you have questions about your portfolio, or if you simply want some re-assurance about the current market volatility.
There has been much talk about the wake-up call that Canada has received regarding the tariffs being imposed on us and the importance of Canada reducing its reliance on the US as a trading partner. We have an insightful article on what Canada must do to become a free trade hub.
Hard to believe, but Microsoft is fifty! We have an interesting article on what Microsoft is doing to remain relevant and dominant as a tech giant.
Brian health is becoming so important as people age. We have a list of ten small thing that neurologists wish people would do for their brain health. Read more about it in the attached article.
Many of us have numerous subscriptions and streaming services, to the point where we are not even sure what we have anymore! We have a timely article that provides tips for tracking and managing all these paid subscriptions.
Being smart with AI is crucial to develop good habits. We have an article that highlights how AI can make people lazy in their thinking and why mental effort is important to brain health. Read more about it.
On a positive note, spring is around the corner and hopefully, better, sunny weather is on its way, allowing people to get out and enjoy the outdoors!
Have a wonderful week everyone!
